Asylum-seekers wait in line to be processed by U.S. Border Patrol agents earlier this year at a makeshift camp near the U.S.-Mexico border east of Jacumba, Calif.
We have heard a lot of anti-immigrant talk from politicians, and a large part of the general public has bought into this thinking, that immigrants are bad for the United States. Besides stating the obvious -- that there never would have been a United States without immigrants -- I'd like to take a look at what it would mean if all our undocumented immigrants were removed.
What would be the consequences? Is this really what we want?
The American Immigration Council recently put out a report on what such a massive deportation of all undocumented immigrants in the U.S. would cost the United States.
Using American Community Survey data along with publicly available data, the council conservatively estimated that it would cost upwards of $315 billion to deport all undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. if the deportations happened all in the same year. These costs include arrest, legal processing and removal.
However, the U.S. has never deported more than 500,000 immigrants per year, according to the immigration council, so this may not even be feasible. Detention would be required, which means considerably more detention facilities would need to be built, and that cost is not included in the $315 billion estimate.
Currently, immigrant detention centers have capacities of 40,000 people. To deport both the 11 million estimated undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. plus another 2.3 million to account for more recent arrivals, we are looking at the deportation of 13.3 million people. Hiring and training 220,000 to 409,000 new employees would add to the cost. Given the current employee shortage, this may not be realistic.
Because the feasibility of such a mass deportation may not be able to be accomplished, the immigration council also charted the costs of a 10-year plan, assuming a deportation of 1 million immigrants per year for 10 years.
Even assuming a self-deportation rate of 20 percent, it found the cost to arrest, detain, process and remove 1 million people each year would be $88 billion per year, amounting to $967.9 billion over a 10-year period, a phenomenal amount of taxpayer money. This is a conservative estimate of the costs. Hiring a necessary 30,000-plus new agents for Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement would bring the $88 billion-per-year cost to more than $1 trillion per year.
These estimated costs do not include the regular annual costs of border security.
Among the unintended consequences of mass deportation:
The current labor shortage would be greatly exacerbated. Most undocumented immigrants are of working age, and despite the lack of work permits, many manage to find jobs and work and contribute to the U.S. economy.The Agriculture and construction industries would be adversely affected. Thirty percent of construction workers and 28 percent of agriculture workers would be removed. The hospitality industry would also be adversely affected. It is likely that construction projects would be slowed down and the prices would rise.Grocery stores may experience shortages of produce, meat and dairy foods, and prices would likely rise. This would be on top of the current inflated prices that people are already grappling with.One million immigrant entrepreneurs would also be deported, resulting in closed businesses and layoffs, including lost jobs for Americans, all of which would have a negative effect on the economy. It is well-documented that on the whole,immigrants contribute positively to our economy.For older folks, Social Security and Medicare would lose $22.6 billion and $5.7 billion, respectively, each year, currently paid by undocumented immigrants. Immigrant workers contribute to our safety-net programs, and a mass deportation would result in a loss of funds for the programs.The loss of federal ($46.8 billion), state and local ($29.3 billion) taxes paid by immigrants -- and loss of immigrant families' buying power ($256.8 billion) -- would be felt in our economy as well.Many immigrant families are of mixed status. Some family members may have legal status while others don't. In addition to the emotional trauma of being separated, it is estimated that 4 million families would be affected. Parents would be separated from children and spouses would be separated from one another, affecting 8.5 million U.S. citizens.It is estimated that there will be a 4.2 to 6.8 percent loss in gross domestic product, or put another way, a $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion loss. For comparison, the 2007-09 Great Recession amounted to a 4.3 percent loss in GDP. This economic loss would be felt most keenly in California, Texas and Florida, where 47.2 percent of immigrants lived in 2022. Illinois has 14.4 percent of immigrants residing in the state.The size and power of the federal government would necessarily grow in order to carry out this mass deportation.
Scapegoating immigrants for all the problems in our society is as old as human history. Make the immigrants go away and everything will be fine, say the scapegoaters. It is an easy sell, but not one without severe consequences.
Having detailed the costs and some of the unintended consequences, I ask again, is this really what we want? Please keep this in mind when you vote on Election Day or before.