AUGUSTA, Ga. (WRDW/WAGT) - After dealing with a devastating hurricane, the last thing we want to worry about is winter weather. While no winter weather is in our forecast anytime soon, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Outlook was released today by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to see what could be in store for the months ahead.
The outlook covers December 2024 through February 2025. The main influence on the outlook this winter is a projected strengthening La Nina pattern. La Nina is a stage of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) where equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than average from stronger trade winds, which leads to upwelling of cooler ocean water.
ENSO influences global weather patterns and when a La Nina is present during the winter, that usually means a warmer and drier winter compared to average for most of us in Georgia and South Carolina. According to the NOAA outlook released today, "La Nina conditions are expected to develop later this fall and typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier". La Nina can influence and shift around our jet stream pattern in the mid-latitudes. This shift during La Nina winters can create more upper level ridging over the Southeast, leading to less rain and warmer than normal temperatures. Upper level troughs don't as frequently dip down to the Southeast during La Nina winters, which is why cold outbreaks happen less frequently during those years. We will still see cold spells though!
While this outlook doesn't look great for snow lovers in the CSRA, winter weather can still happen during a La Nina year. This outlook provides a look at the overall chance of temperatures being cooler or warmer than average and if precipitation will be less or more than average. We will still see cold blasts of air through the winter season - but the season in general - should be warmer than average.
The last time Augusta measured more than a trace of snowfall was 2016 when 0.5'' fell on January 23rd. The last time we had more than 1'' of snow in Augusta was 2014 when 1.2'' fell during the ice storm February 12th. When the major ice storm hit in 2014 - we were in a weak El Nino phase of ENSO. When the big snow storm of 1973 hit the CSRA - we were in a strong El Nino phase. Last winter was a strong El Nino, but we did not see any winter weather, so it's not always a clear signal on if you will or won't see snow based solely on ENSO.
Rarely do winter events in the CSRA stay all snow. Most of the time we have to deal with the sleet and the worst hazard of all - freezing rain. It takes a perfect scenario for moisture and cold air to show up at the same time over the CSRA for winter weather to occur. Our most common set up is cold air damming occurring at the surface with high pressure to our north - next we need an area of low pressure off the Georgia/Carolina coast that slings moisture over the cold air at the surface - and then our last big factor is a deep trough over the eastern US that can bring down very cold arctic air to the Southeast. All it takes is one impactful storm to make a season memorable, so even though we are favored to be overall warmer and drier than average, winter weather could still occur and it's important to stay updated on the forecast.
NOAA also announced investments being made to try and improve long term forecasts. "In September, we announced a $100 million investment into NOAA's high-performance computer system to advance research on weather, climate and ocean predictions because understanding our climate system is essential for making longer-term predictions like the Winter Seasonal Outlook, which provides vital information for many of our partners and the public," said Michael Morgan, Ph.D., NOAA's assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. You can view more on the outlook here: NOAA Winter Outlook.