In 2018, there was The Miracle in Miami, a last-second series of laterals that turned a surefire win into a shocking loss.
Late in the 2015 season, needing a win to secure home-field advantage, Bill Belichick confused everyone by putting the game in the hands of veteran running back Steven Jackson. It did not go well; the Patriots dropped a 20-10 decision to a woeful Miami team, and ended up losing to the Broncos -- in Denver -- in the AFC title game.
There were ugly losses in 2014, 2009, 2006, 2004, and 2001. Games where the Patriots came in as sizable favorites, only to suffer strange and shocking defeats to the Dolphins.
So how can New England change the energy? A good place to start would be a return to the physical football we saw at the start of the 2024 season.
"We just need to settle down and play our brand of football," said defensive tackle Davon Godchaux. "You know they're going to do what they do. They have a lot of speed on offense. We can't beat ourselves. Put them in tough situations. ... I think if we do that, we'll have a good chance to get after Tua [Tagovailoa]."
Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne -- who sustained a season-ending knee injury last October in Miami -- was asked about the possibility of burning some sage at Hard Rock Stadium, a la Kyrie Irving when he came back to Boston. He laughed.
"Just embrace the environment," said Bourne.
▪ Why this game is important for the Patriots (3-8): A young team is looking to build some consistency down the stretch, and a division game on the road is as good a time as any to get things started. Drake Maye is coming off one of the best outings of his professional career -- 29 of 39, 282 yards, two touchdowns, one interception -- and has impressed Miami coach Mike McDaniel with his skill set.
"I saw a true quarterback who has the ability to gain the confidence of his teammates and lead and orchestrate an offense. I saw a guy who can make plays in a multitude of ways," McDaniel said.
"The Patriots are kind of feeling that right now, where he's a guy that can see down the field, can play fearlessly in the pocket, and make every throw -- with the arm strength to do it."
The Patriots have won just one of their last seven trips to South Florida, in 2019. If Maye and company can flip the script this weekend and surprise the Dolphins, they could get a nice bounce heading into a home date with the inconsistent Colts.
▪ Why this game is important for the Dolphins (4-6): It feels like things have started to stabilize a bit for Miami. The Dolphins have Tagovailoa (73% completion rate, 1,443 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs) back in the lineup, and have won two straight after a three-game skid.
If Miami wants to keep pace in the AFC playoff chase, it needs this game. Along with the Colts and Bengals, the Dolphins are one of three teams on the outer fringes of the postseason picture separated by one game. A win this week could allowed them to build some separation as the post-Thanksgiving race for the playoffs starts.
▪ Three numbers to keep in mind
Zero: The number of times the Patriots have beaten Tagovailoa, who is 6-0 against New England. In those games, he's completed 68 percent of his passes, thrown for 1,299 yards, and had seven touchdowns and four interceptions.
3: The number of Dolphins wins, since the start of the 2022 season, against teams .500 or better entering the game. If Miami isn't beating elite teams, it needs to do all it can against lesser opponents like New England.
8: The number of Patriots takeaways through 11 games; only three teams (Browns, Titans, and Raiders) have fewer. Overall, New England has just one takeaway in the last five games, and has a turnover ratio of minus-2 on the season. There are three players (Kerby Joseph with the Lions, Xavier McKinney of the Packers, and Marlon Humphrey of the Ravens) with more interceptions this season than the Patriots have as a team (four).
▪ MayeWatch: Maye is averaging 37.1 rushing yards per game. That's tied for fifth among quarterbacks.
▪ What Vegas is saying: This game opened with the Patriots between 6½- and 7½-point underdogs, and has held that way for much of the week. Most outlets have the over/under set at 46. Miami is 8-0 against the spread in the last eight games between the teams.
▪ Weather forecast: A typical South Florida afternoon in November; highs in the mid-70s and a small chance of precipitation. Even though it might be a little cooler than usual for this time of year, the sunny sideline conditions will still be a challenge for those not used to dealing with the heat.
"It's not really a big difference for me, but I know a lot of guys struggle with it," said Godchaux, a Florida native. "Actually, I think last year when we went down there to stay in West Palm Beach, it was pretty hot down there for that game. Being a visitor, seeing how the shade is on their side and the sun is on your side and it's beaming ... it's hard, to be honest. It's a lot of heat."
▪ Quote of the week: "You ever get comfortable with a bullet coming at you?" -- Cornerback Jonathan Jones on the prospect of facing speedy Miami receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Slowing Hill (44 catches, 523 yards, three touchdowns this season) will be paramount; the speedy receiver has traditionally posted great numbers against the Patriots. One way New England prepared for Hill in the past? The scout team receivers were given a 5-10 yard head start on the defensive backs, so they could prepare for Hill's acceleration. No one in the locker room wanted to tip their hand as to how they might try and game-plan for Hill this week, but it's something to keep in mind come Sunday.
▪ Matchup of the week: The defensive front against Tagovailoa. Early in the season, New England struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. While the numbers have improved lately, it will still be a challenge trying to keep Tagovailoa in the pocket. There's also the issue of getting to him, as his quick release can stymie even the best pass rushers.
"From a D-line and pass rush perspective, he gets the ball out faster than anybody in the league," defensive lineman Keion White said. "And so the challenge is to one, pressure him quickly, and then two, just getting into the throwing lanes and everything like that to try and bat some passes down."
▪ Looking ahead: After this weekend, the Patriots return home to meet the Colts on Dec. 1. It'll be their last game before the bye week -- New England is one of six teams with a bye on Week 14, the latest possible date on the calendar for the NFL.